The NCAA Tournamant prediction algorithm - Dance Card - referenced last week correctly predicted 30 of the 34 at-large selections; an accuracy rate of 88%. According to Dance Card's rankings Illinois State, Dayton, Ohio State, and UMass should've been invited. The Selection Committee felt differently, and invited Villanova, Oregon, St. Joseph's, and Kansas State instead.
The creators of Dance Card have a second formula called Score Card which is designed to predict the results of NCAA tournament games. This might be a handy tool to use prior to submitting your brackets on Thursday morning!
Score Card predicts two first-round upsets: #9 Kent State over #8 Nevada Las Vegas, and #11 Baylor over #6 Purdue.
I'll add my predictions, completely devoid of analytics: a 12-seed always seems to beat a 5-seed, so I'll pick Villanova over Clemson (the Tigers come out flat after their ACC title-game loss to UNC; Villanova validates the Committee's theory that the Big East is the tougher conference) and the Pitt Panthers make it to the Final Four.
We'll see who's right...let the Madness begin!
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